Лидерство и риски Зеленского, весна без МВФ, отставка Назарбаева. Главные итоги

Сохранит ли Зеленский свой рейтинг?

В компании лидеров президентской гонки все стабилизировалось. Таков главный итог свежего соцопроса от “Рейтинга” появившегося вчера. Однако парадокс в том, что, несмотря на очевидные цифры, даже сегодня, за 11 дней до выборов, невозможно предсказать, какой будет пара финалистов.

Вроде бы предсказуемым является выход во второй тур Зеленского, чей отрыв от преследователей впечатляет. Однако его рейтинг – самый нестабильный из всех. Выбор Зеленского – это не холодный расчет, а эмоция, направленная, в первую очередь, против Порошенко и Тимошенко. При этом любые попытки направить этот выбор в рациональную плоскость обречены на провал.

Характерный пример – представление Зеленским своей новой команды. Данилюк и Абромавичус – те, кого использовали в качестве рекламной ширмы для Запада нынешние правители, теперь перекочевали в команду нового фаворита, но нет никакой гарантии, что там они не будут играть ту же роль. И, естественно, для электората Зеленского эти имена явно рекламой не стали.

Поэтому нельзя исключать, что в последний момент из-за подобных “презентаций” рейтинг лидера может рассыпаться. Причем в выигрыше от этого могут оказаться, в первую очередь, Бойко (“юго-восточная” часть электората Зеленского) и Гриценко (“реформистская”). Вариант маловероятный, но исключать его нельзя.

Пока же главный вопрос – это противостояние Порошенко и Тимошенко. У “Рейтинга” лидирует лидер “Батькивщины”, но отрыв составляет всего лишь социологическую погрешность, поэтому радоваться Тимошенко не стоит: 3-5% – это то, что Порошенко легко дорисует себе с помощью админресурса. Не для того же он массово перед под свой контроль местные избирательные участки, чтобы обеспечить честное голосование.

Впрочем, все это касается первого тура. Во втором у Порошенко нет шансов ни с Зеленским, ни с Тимошенко, и потому тут важен только один вопрос: рискнет ли президент пойти на действительно массовые фальсификации.

Экзитполы: первый пошел

Одним из способов предотвращения фальсификаций в последнее десятилетие стали экзитполы. И вчера о проведении экзитпола на президентских выборах объявили телеканалы NewsOne и 112. Благодаря нему украинцы не только смогут узнать результаты раньше, чем от Центральной избирательной комиссии, но и понять, насколько существенными окажутся фальсификации.

Правда, система экзитполов тоже не совершенна. Многие еще помнят 2010 год, когда все показали в первом туре разницу в 10-12% между Януковичем и Тимошенко, а Центр Разумкова – в 3%. И тогда именно итоги первого тура позволили определить, каким из экзитполов можно доверять.

Однако сегодня доверять результатам от ЦИК сложно, поэтому нужны экзитполы. И не один, а не менее четырех – тогда их можно будет проверять. Поэтому важно, чтобы вслед за NewsOne и 112 с аналогичной инициативой выступили другие медиа или сами социологические службы. Тогда мы на самом деле поймем, кто же победил на выборах.

Весна без МВФ

В отношениях между Украиной и МВФ тем временем – новая пауза. Вчера и.о. министра финансов Маркарова сообщила, что новых траншей мы не получим минимум до мая-июня. По словам Маркаровой, дело в том, что Запад недоволен отменой уголовной ответственности за незаконное обогащение и законопроектами, которые были внесены на замену.

Это действительно так, однако дело не только в этом. Все еще проще: кредиторы ждут окончания президентских выборов. МВФ не уверен в том, что в случае смены власти украинское правительство продолжит повышать тарифы на газ и отопление. И, в принципе, неуверенность обоснована: если верить предвыборным обещаниям, то только Порошенко готов сотрудничать с МВФ на прежних условиях. Правда, кто из остальных кандидатов на деле готов хотя бы заморозить тарифы, не говоря уже об их снижении, – это пока вопрос.

Между тем, тарифы и ответственность за незаконное обогащение – не единственные требования, предъявляемые фондом. С новой власти, так же, как и со старой, будут требовать введения рынка земли, на который никто не готов идти. Так что не исключено, что май-июнь как вероятный срок продолжения сотрудничества с МВФ – это еще слишком оптимистический прогноз.

Когда на “Миротворец” внесут Авакова?

Сайт “Миротворец” вчера снова отличился: на него внесли журналистку “Страны” Олесю Медведеву. Повод – репортаж, который она сделала из Крыма. Абсолютно не пророссийский и даже практически не политический, просто – реальный. При этом сама командировка проходила полностью по украинским правилам – то есть с въездом с украинской территории.

Но для “Миротворца” все это безразлично. Людей, которые всем подряд задают вопрос “Чей Крым”, сам полуостров и жизнь на нем не волнуют. В их реальности Крым остался только в виде вопроса.

Впрочем, внесение на сайт “Миротворец” теперь только в их реальности что-то значит. В настоящем же мире сайт, на котором одновременно находятся Стрелков, Безлер и активисты “Нацкорпуса”, превратился в обыкновенный справочник. И вносить в него нужно уже миллионов 30 наших сограждан – всех тех, кто не собирается голосовать за Порошенко. Ведь в конечном итоге теперь “Миротворец” и есть списком тех, кто не хочет становиться биомассой для президента. Осталось только дождаться, когда на него внесут Авакова и Коломойского.

Назарбаев: операция “Преемник”

Главная сенсация вчерашнего дня – отставка президента Казахстана Назарбаева. Зная особенности авторитарных режимов, все были убеждены, что человек, руководивший страной еще с советских времен, останется на своем посту до самой смерти. Но Назарбаев поступил иначе.

Безусловно, тут свою роль сыграл пример Ельцина. Полную аналогию провести нельзя, но одно несомненно: Казахстан 2019 года – не менее сложное и хрупкое государство, чем Россия 1999-го.

Смерть лидера авторитарного государства всегда имела последствием ослабление самого государства. Так было с СССР после Сталина и с Китаем после Мао, а для Югославии смерть Тито и вовсе стала точкой отсчета для ее скорого распада. Борьба потенциальных наследников за власть ведется любыми методами, в том числе – и за счет интересов своей страны.

Вокруг Казахстана немало тех, кто ожидал подобной ситуации и там.

Поступок Назарбаева дает Казахстану шанс избежать всего этого – так же, как в 2000-м году удалось избежать потрясений России. Пока точно непонятно, кто станет реальным преемником Назарбаева, но можно не сомневаться, что в первое время за его спиной будет стоять Назарбаев – и это позволит не только произвести плавную передачу власти, но и сохранить неизменной внешнюю и внутреннюю политику страны.

Поэтому даже отставка первого президента не означает переломный момент. Главным испытанием для преемника станет момент, когда ему действительно придется править самому. В такие моменты всегда появляется некто, кто попытается повернуть все в свою сторону. Вот тогда-то и определится, станут ли нынешние преемники Назарбаева страницей истории Казахстана или временщиками вроде советского Маленкова или китайского Хуа Гофэна.

А вот сам Назарбаев исключительное место в истории своей страны уже обеспечил. Не только 30-летним правлением, но и вчерашней отставкой. Он сделал все, что мог, и если наследники не смогут сохранить созданную Назарбаевым страну, в этом не будет его вины.

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