Низкие зарплаты могут уничтожить Украину

Трудовая миграция в стране обретает угрожающий характер

Тема заработных плат в Украине приобретает устойчивые очертания “национального Карфагена”. Каждый политик говорит о том, что уровень заработных плат необходимо повысить, иначе трудовые ресурсы будут улетучиваться из страны со скоростью воздуха, выходящего из пробитого шарика.

С одной стороны, “голый” показатель оплаты труда действительно чрезвычайно важен. Если в Польше, средняя зарплата составляет примерно 800 евро, то, с учетом паритета покупательной способности гривны и злотого, украинец должен получать у себя на родине не меньше 500 евро. Принимая во внимание, что стоимость проживания в Украине ниже, чем в Польше, разница в уровне доходов в пределах полуторного разрыва будет создавать иллюзию равнообеспеченности.

Таким образом, уже сейчас, средняя зарплата украинца должна составить около 15-16 тыс. грн. в месяц. Примечательно, что трудовая миграция из Украины замедлялась именно в период курсовой стабильности национальной валюты – гривны, когда за счет поступательного роста трудовых доходов, средняя зарплата приближалась к тем самым 500 евро. Подобная тенденция происходила в 2004-2007 и 2010-2013 годах. В период кризисов, который у нас всегда сопровождается резким обвалом гривны, сокращение реальных доходов населения приводило к ускорению трудовой миграции, что является вполне закономерным явлением.

Но сейчас, к указанному выше краткосрочному фактору (а колебания заработной платы как в сторону роста, так и в сторону падения, не бывают “вечными”) прибавились намного более сложные по своему воздействию долгосрочные стимулы. Речь идет о качестве жизни и долгосрочной перспективе. Связывая себя надолго с той или иной экономикой, каждый индивид пытается ответить на три ключевых вопроса:

  • Сколько я буду зарабатывать.
  • Как я защищен сегодня.
  • Как я буду обеспечен завтра

На первый вопрос отвечает рынок труда, и мы об этом упоминали выше. Вторая группа стимулов – это уровень медицины и социальной защищенности. Третья группа – это прежде всего наличие эффективной пенсионной системы. И вот здесь мы приходим к неутешительным выводам: проведенная медицинская реформа лишила украинцев ощущения доступности медицинских услуг. Кроме того, постоянно ухудшается и их качество.

Что касается так называемой пенсионной системы, то она фактически полностью ликвидировала все долгосрочные стимулы работы в своей стране: уже сейчас, украинец, который работает, например, в Италии и официально платит налоги, может претендовать на минимальный пенсионный уровень в размере 300 евро в месяц, то есть более 10 тыс. грн. В Украине же сейчас, даже после “осовременивания” пенсий, их средний размер составляет 2,5 тыс. грн., что значительно ниже реального прожиточного минимума, превышающего 3 тыс. грн.

Именно поэтому, украинец, если у него не получается правильно голосовать головой и руками, голосует ногами, уезжая на заработки за рубеж. При этом, не стоит путать понятие родины и экономики, где зарабатываешь. Учитывая глобализацию трудовых миграционных процессов, понятие национальных границ на рынке труда становится весьма условным.

На данный момент, наибольший уровень зарплат наблюдается в секторе информации/телекоммуникаций и финансовом сегменте экономики: 13,8 и 14,9 тыс. грн. в месяц соответственно. Не отстает и наука – 12,6 тыс. грн. При этом, стоит обратить внимание, что это отрасли с очень низким уровнем вакансий: по данным статистики в них занято 274, 216 и 416 тысяч человек (официально трудоустроено). Примечательно, что в сельском хозяйстве (а также рыбной, лесной отраслях) занято уже больше людей, чем в промышленности: 2,8 млн. человек против 2,4 млн. В то же время, уровень средних зарплат в аграрном секторе существенно ниже: 6,6 тыс. грн., в то время как на промышленном производстве – 9,3 тыс. грн.

Данные цифры наглядно говорят о том, что в отраслях, в которых больше всего занято наемных работников (промышленность, сельское хозяйство), уровень зарплат отстает от отраслей лидеров: ИТ, финансы, наука. В то же время, самые оплачиваемые направления, указанные выше, не могут социализировать всех желающих и обеспечить большое количество вакансий с высокой оплатой труда. Если взять кумулятивные параметры трех зарплатных флагманов (ИТ, финансы и наука), получим 906 тыс. занятых работников, то есть в более чем в пять раз меньше, чем относительно низкооплачиваемые промышленность и сельское хозяйство (совокупно 5,3 млн. человек).

На фоне этого, “третьим звонком” на спектакль, звучит открытие в Германии почти 1,7 млн. трудовых вакансий. В отличие от Польши, немецкая экономика может предложить даже на самых не престижных видах работ порядка 1,8 – 2 тыс. евро в месяц. Создание трудовой воронки в ФРГ может привести к трудовой миграции из стран Центральной Европы (Польши, Болгарии, Румынии, Венгрии, Словакии и Балкан), тем более, что большинство этих стран являются составной частью общего европейского рынка труда. По закону “домино”, передвижение такой значительной части трудовых ресурсов на запад, вызовет “отлив” человеческого капитала и на востоке, то есть прежде всего в Украине.

Учитывая крайне низкую вероятность прорывных экономических решений у наших чиновников в ближайшее время, у нынешнего молодого поколения украинцев существует достаточно простой выбор: осваивать рабочие специальности есть смысл лишь тогда, если у тебя в планах значится выезд за границу (деиндустриализация нашей экономики продолжится, а сельское хозяйство не сможет обеспечить высокий уровень дохода для наемных работников, проверено рисовыми плантациями Азии и кофейными – Африки и Латинской Америки).

Максимальное развитие в Украине в ближайшие несколько лет получит сектор услуг – именно там и будет происходить поступательный рост зарплат. И не стоит всем ориентироваться на сектор ИТ-технологий – он не резиновый и тоже имеет циклы своего развития.

Образовавшиеся вызовы трудовой миграции может решить лишь глобальная перестройка национальной экономики и динамика ее роста в пределах 7-10% в год. Но это уже совсем другая история…

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