Предупредительный сбой. Почему не хватило денег на своевременную выплату пенсий

Дефицит Пенсионного фонда накапливается уже 10 лет. Чтобы вовремя выплачивать пенсии, учреждение занимает финансы в госбюджете. Все это планируется и рассчитывается, но в июле что-то пошло не так

В конце июля возникли задержки с выплатами пенсий. В Укрпоште, через которую получают пенсии и соцвыплаты 6,2 млн украинцев (примерно 40% пенсионеров обслуживается сотрудниками компании), изначально отметили: есть технические проблемы с перечислением денег от Пенсионного фонда Украины (ПФУ). После в Фонде сообщили, что причиной несвоевременных выплат стал кассовый разрыв поступлений единого социального взноса. Фокус разобрался, почему возник такой дисбаланс.

Нереальные планы

Причин сложившейся ситуации может быть несколько. Эксперты сходятся во мнении, что кассовый разрыв мог возникнуть по причине плохого планирования выплат. “Когда вы работаете в частном бизнесе, разве можете набирать персонал с гарантированной зарплатой больше, чем поток прихода денежных средств на расчетный счет?” – Задается вопросом Галина Третьякова, генеральный директор Украинской федерации страхования. – “Можете. Но тогда будут перебои и уголовная ответственность. В ПФУ та же история”. Для того, чтобы план выплат соответствовал факту нужно учитывать не только баланс доходов и расходов, но и падение ликвидности (поступления денег в определенные периоды) или же иметь оперативный механизм компенсации за счет бюджета.

Сложившаяся ситуация показывает, что в этом году нельзя делать дополнительных повышений соцвыплат

Дефицит ликвидности может быть связан с тем, что в период отпусков отчисление ЕСВ за июль было по факту сделано в июне, поскольку людям выплачивалась зарплата перед отдыхом”, – рассуждает Лидия Ткаченко, ведущий научный сотрудник Института демографии и социальных исследований имени М.В. Птухи НАН Украины. По ее словам, в экономике не случилось масштабных кризисных явлений, которые способствовали резкому сокращению ликвидности. Стоит сказать, что по данным Госказначейства, поступления ЕСВ в июне составили более 21 млрд грн, а по состоянию на 25 июля это показатель достиг 15,4 млрд грн.

При этом Галина Третьякова считает: ситуация, которая сложилась, может служить показателем того, что в этом году нельзя делать дополнительных повышений соцвыплат, сверх предусмотренных бюджетом.

Дефицит всему голова

Задержки пенсий могут быть вызваны также тем, что казначейство просто не успевает своевременно покрывать дефицит бюджета Пенсионного фонда Украины. “Очевидно, увеличение дефицита бюджета привело к несогласованным действиям между Пенсионным фондом и казначейством, связанными с необходимостью увеличения расходов государственного бюджета в текущем периоде”, – поясняет Григорий Овчаренко, глава подразделения по управлению локальными активами группы ICU.

Пока Пенсионный фонд продолжает частично выделять деньги для пенсионных выплат, ситуация полностью еще не решена

Но поскольку такие разрывы для Украины – нередкое явление, то провал в июле, скорее всего, стал результатом обострения нескольких проблем: дефицита бюджета и сезонного фактора. “Если не хватает денег на счетах для текущих выплат, то ПФУ обращается за займом к Госказначейству. После кризиса 2008 года практически каждый год такие займы выдают регулярно”, – говорит Лидия Ткаченко. Такой заем беспроцентный, но предполагается, что Пенсионный фонд в конце года должен этот долг бюджету вернуть. Но так не происходит. По словам, Лидии Ткаченко, начиная с 2008 года, когда стали занимать деньги из бюджета для пенсионных выплат, накопилось более 42 млрд грн непогашенного займа. “Это замаскированный дефицит Пенсионного фонда. По этим деньгам пока никакого решения не принято. Но Пенсионный фонд частично эту задолженность должен гасить. В прошлом году выплатили 1 млрд в госбюджет для покрытия части долга”, – поясняет эксперт.

Стоит сказать, что 42 млрд грн – это дополнительный накопленный долг ПФУ, помимо общегодового трансферта из госбюджета, который в 2017 году составил 140 млрд грн.

Пока Пенсионный фонд продолжает частично выделять деньги для пенсионных выплат, ситуация полностью еще не решена. На сайте Укрпошты по состоянию на 25 июля есть информация, что срок выплаты пенсий в этом месяце продлят на 3 дня до 28 числа.

Остается вопрос, а могут ли возникнуть такие разрывы в последующие месяцы? Теоретически такая вероятность есть.  “Учитывая, что расходы Пенсионного фонда покрываются за счет собственных доходов только на 60%, подобные прецеденты, конечно, могут иметь место в будущем, но ни казначейство, ни руководство ПФУ не заинтересованы в этом, особенно в преддверии выборов”, – считает Григорий Овчаренко.

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